NFL Week 4 picks against the spread: C.J. Stroud continues his strong start

Read Vic’s latest NFL picks against the spread. 

While Jalen Carter has already locked up defensive rookie of the year honors, C.J. Stroud has emerged as the favorite for the offensive award. Bryce Young has struggled and both he and Anthony Richardson missed last week with injuries, while Stroud led the Texans to an upset win over the Jaguars.

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Stroud became the third quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 900 yards over his first three starts (joining Justin Herbert and Cam Newton), and he has also not thrown an interception. Oh, and did we mention the Texans can’t run the ball? But Stroud has great poise, and stands and delivers with accuracy.

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Everyone thought Bijan Robinson would run away with rookie honors, but apparently Falcons coach Arthur Smith lives to torment fantasy owners. First, Kyle Pitts, and now, Smith has Robinson splitting carries with Tyler Allgeier. That’s like Pearl Jam sharing a stage with Nickelback. (Hey, it’s been too long since anybody ripped Nickelback.)

Forget Nickelback, I was down there with Creed after my 1-9 start in my best bets, but I went 4-1 last week. Can I take you even “Higher” this week? That’s all going to depend on Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.

And Andy Dalton …?

Last week: 9-7 against the spread, 4-1 on best bets.

Season record: 18-27-1 ATS, 5-10 on best bets.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

The Packers likely will be getting Aaron Jones and Christian Watson back, which is a big deal. Jordan Love has missed Watson, as he leads the NFL in air yards per attempt (10.6) and percentage of throws 15-plus yards downfield (27.1 percent), but he’s completed just 34.6 percent of those 15-yard passes (25th in NFL). But I will roll with the Lions’ offense, as Amon-Ra St. Brown should go wild against a banged-up Packers secondary, and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is poised for a breakout game against a soft run defense. Not to mention, Sam LaPorta beat out former Packer Keith Jackson for most catches (18) by a tight end in their first three NFL games.

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The pick: Lions 

The Jaguars were correctly pegged as overrated before the season, and should be 0-3 against the spread (they’re 1-2). People are now jumping off the bandwagon — this game has been bet down from 4 points — that you might as well have stayed on. The Jaguars can stop the run, which is pretty much all the Falcons do. Add in the huge quarterback edge — Lawrence has had some bad luck as Jacksonville leads the NFL with nine drops through three games — and the fact that Jaguars are playing in their second home in London and this pick is as good as British food is bad.

The pick: Jaguars 

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NFL Power Rankings Week 4: Dolphins, 49ers are 1-2, plus QB confidence ratings

We made the blurry Dolphins — they have three players with the five fastest ball-carrying speeds this season — our top play last week and they scored 70 points. We should retire on that one. But no, now we have to take them as underdogs as they seek their first 4-0 start in 28 years. The Bills have the best home record in the league since 2020 (25-6) and are coming off a blowout win themselves — with a breakout game from new star linebacker Terrel Bernard. And Josh Allen should thrive against a Miami pass rush that has actually been disappointing. New rule: Always go against a team coming off a 50-point win.

The pick: Bills 

Fields was clearly distracted by Taylor Swift being in the crowd in Kansas City last week. That, and all the I-hate-my-coach, I-love-my-coach stuff. But now, he gets to face a Broncos defense that opts to not rush the quarterback. Denver has created pressure on an NFL-low 20.4 percent of opponent dropbacks this season. The Bears also are very generous on defense, though not as bad as the Broncos against the run. This might be it for Russell Wilson, as Sean Payton is going to need a fall guy after starting 0-4 and snapping the Bears’ 13-game losing streak. Can they start trading guys now?

The pick: Bears 

The Browns defense is no joke. Cleveland has allowed an NFL-low 3.2 yards per play this season, the best by any defense through three games this century, and it should be 3-0. They have a star in Myles Garrett, made some great offseason pickups on the defensive line to help him out and have good tacklers and cover guys behind him. The Browns force three-and-outs on 61.5 percent of opponent drives, also the best by any defense through three games since 2000. The public is in on the secret, and this spread has moved four points because the Ravens are banged up. I will ride with the Browns, and Deshaun Watson’s improved play is the reason why neither the line movement nor Kevin Stefanski’s 10-19 ATS record as a favorite will discourage me.

The pick: Browns 

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Joe Burrow has to be better this week, right? Maybe put that heat/massage device on extra high and throw some passes deep? Because if he can’t, Joe Mixon is going to have a hard time carrying the offense against a Titans defense that is good against the run. This is the kind of home game Mike Vrabel’s tough team usually wins, but I think this team is a lot worse than the last few years, The Titans should be 0-3 if not for the Chargers Chargering, and it’s kind of sad that Ryan Tannehill is still their quarterback after five years of wasting all the stacked fronts that Derrick Henry has provided him.

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The pick: Bengals 

The Rams lost to a clearly limited Burrow on Monday night, so how are they going to slow down Richardson, who is back from a concussion? (Yeah, I heard it when I wrote it, but I am sticking with it.) Richardson should be able to beat the slow Rams defense with his legs and arm, while the Colts defense will harass a hobbling Rams offensive line and poor Matthew Stafford. Like me and that Dolphins pick last week, Stafford — 1 for 11 on third downs last week — should have retired after that Week 1 performance. It’s all downhill from there.

The pick: Colts

The Bucs got pounded by the Eagles, and now they have to go to New Orleans for another potential dreaded Jameis Winston revenge game. Winston might start for an injured Derek Carr, and Winston did nothing against the Packers last week that should scare his former team. But … tip of the cap to the great Lee Corso … not so fast. The Saints get Alvin Kamara back from suspension, and he is on all three of my fantasy teams. What, you don’t care? Nobody should ever tell anybody about their fantasy teams? I agree. Saints in a coin flip. (And if Carr plays, it was a two-sided coin.)

The pick: Saints 

Carter and the Eagles defensive line should feast against a bad Commanders offensive line. And if you’re thinking the Eagles may take a nap this game, that happened last season and they lost, so fat chance that happens again. If you’re thinking about taking the Commanders and the points, you’re either banking on Washington’s impressive defensive line keeping the game somewhat close, the flu bug lingering for the Eagles or Sam Howell getting garbage-time points. OK … you convinced me.

The pick: Commanders 

People were all over Chargers coach Brandon Staley for going for it on fourth-and-1 at his own 24 in the final minutes last week, but it wasn’t analytics. He probably looked across the field and shrugged and said, “Hey, the Vikings stink.” And sure enough, after getting the ball back, the Vikings could not score and lost the game. The Panthers stink less than the Vikings, and were actually beating the Seahawks in the third quarter last week before sustaining more injuries and crumbling. And my guy, linebacker Frankie Luvu, didn’t practice Wednesday. Tough call here, but Dalton is good enough to get the Panthers a three-point loss at home against a bad team.

The pick: Panthers 

Stroud’s 7.8 air yards per attempt are the most by a rookie through three starts who hadn’t thrown a pick since 2016 when Dak Prescott averaged 8.2 for the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ Kenny Pickett bails from the pocket as soon as a pass rusher gets a step on an offensive lineman, but somehow has won two straight games. The Steelers should be able to run the ball against the Texans, but I think the Texans outscore them. It’s also a sandwich game for the Steelers, coming off a Sunday night win and looking ahead to a game against the hated Ravens.

The pick: Texans 

The Raiders’ offense has not been very good with Jimmy Garoppolo, but they would have no chance to win Sunday if his concussion keeps him out. Brian Hoyer is 37 and winless in his last 12 career starts, and rookie Aidan O’Connell is not ready. The Raiders are hopeful that Garoppolo can play, and that plus their home-crowd advantage in LA gives them a shot. This spread is way too high, even when you consider Herbert is completing 74 percent of his passes before facing the Raiders’ porous defense. But if no Jimmy G, taking the Chargers will be money for free.

The pick: Raiders 

The Ezekiel Elliott revenge game. The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals. Sure, they were missing some offensive linemen, but they were clearly overconfident and Arizona’s Jonathan Gannon can apparently coach a little bit. The Patriots are pretty good defensively, and at first glance, this spread looks too big. But be careful backing a team with no offensive playmakers on the road. Dallas ranks fifth in opponent passer rating (60.9) in man coverage and it has pressured QBs on an NFL-high 63.0 percent of dropbacks. Patriots QB Mac Jones ranks 25th or worse against man coverage in completion percentage (50 percent, 25th), passer rating (74.4, 25th) and EPA per dropback (-0.45, 32nd).

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The pick: Cowboys

Ha, the Cardinals could be 3-0 if they hadn’t blown two fourth-quarter leads. But they are 27th against the run, and that is not a recipe for success against a 49ers team that has won 13 regular-season games in a row. And then you have Brock Purdy leading starting QBs in passer rating (146.8) and EPA per dropback (0.93) on throws at least 15 yards downfield. I thought the 49ers might take a little nap against the Giants last week, and they did — but they converted every third-and-long and won going away. The 49ers simply score 30 points every week and you kind of have to lay the points.

The pick: 49ers

New rule: When a team unveils Taylor Swift dating their star tight end at a home game and wins by 30-plus points, go against them the following week. Especially because the host Jets will be able to run the ball against the Chiefs and their defense is legit. I don’t care that their QB seems to think that time stands still — Zach Wilson has averaged 3.12 seconds from snap to throw or sack, the slowest in the league. People got upset that coach Robert Saleh defended Wilson by saying he’s a good guy that can marry his daughter anytime. What’s he supposed to say? “I am screwed because we can’t trade for a QB because our draft picks are all gone, and the only guy on the street is Carson Wentz, so no thanks.”

The pick: Jets to lose by 7

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Danny Dimes got seemingly hit by a bag of quarters every play last week. But the Seahawks are not the 49ers or Cowboys (the Giants’ opponent in Week 1), so we think Daniel Jones will lead his team to the home win. Mind you, the Giants’ defense may be as bad as the Seahawks’, but they will get some help this week. Seahawks rushers have been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 4-of-5 third-down rushes (80 percent, T-worst in NFL); 44.9 percent of the time on first and second down (14th in NFL). Yeah … we’re stretching it a little bit. I have no idea who wins this game and neither do you.

The pick: Giants 

Best bets: Texans over Steelers, Jaguars over Falcons, Panthers cover against Vikings, Bears over Broncos, Jets keep it close against Chiefs. 

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Panthers. The Red Rifle has found his niche. Dalton goes from town to town — Carolina is his fifth team in five years — and beats somebody when people don’t give him his proper respect. We’re 2-1 after the Texans call last week.

Survivor Pool: We had the Ravens last week so we are dead.

— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Jason Starrett. 

(Photo of C.J. Stroud: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)

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